Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to end 2021 well below analysts’ target projections of $100,000. Kraken CEO Jesse Powell, who had also projected a $100,000 price target for Bitcoin, still remains bullish in the long term, but he does not rule out a sharp drop in the short term. 

One of the negatives that may add pressure to Bitcoin in the short term is the shift in the United States Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. On Dec. 15, the Fed announced that it would wind down its bond-buying program at a faster pace, and it also projected three interest rate hikes in 2022.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research, told CNBC that historically, the S&P 500 tends to post negative returns in the 12-month period when the Fed undertakes three or more rate increases.

If history repeats, Bitcoin could also struggle to run away due to its strong correlation with the S&P 500 at various stages in 2021. It is difficult to predict with certainty whether investors will continue to buy Bitcoin to hedge their portfolio against rising inflation if a risk-off sentiment will result in profit-booking.

With this uncertainty, let’s turn to the charts and conduct a long-term Bitcoin analysis to determine the critical levels to watch out for.