European venture deal-making shows signs of recovery, but for how long?

Venture capital data is backward-looking, a trailing indicator at best. TechCrunch+’s reporting on third-quarter venture capital activity is therefore a lengthy, if earnest look in the rearview mirror. Here’s what happened.

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There’s value to a good retrospective. But what we don’t want to do is presume that what has been always will be, and thus make it seem that the past is actually the present. To that end, European venture capital data is down sharply from prior highs in the third quarter (more here on global numbers), but there’s enough bullish material inside the data that when we look ahead, the European venture capital and startup scene has quite a lot going for it.

Pulling from PitchBook data and a recent Dealroom report, this morning we’re looking for green shoots. After all, by now it’s old news that venture capital totals are down around the world. What can we say about what comes next? Let’s find out!

Down, but not out

PitchBook calculates that European startups have raised €43.6 billion ($46 billion) through the third quarter of 2023. That, per the private-market business database, is off just over 49% compared to year-ago totals concerning the same timeframe. That’s the bad news.