How to use the secondary market to find clues about who will IPO first

Venture capitalists and startup founders alike went into 2023 eagerly hoping for the return of the industry’s exit environment — specifically, the resurgence of IPOs.

After 2021, a record-breaking year for IPOs, everything screeched to a halt in 2022. PitchBook counted 296 venture-backed companies that went public in 2021, which doubles — or more — any other year prior. This plummeted to 28 in 2022, the lowest number recorded since 2009, amid the financial crisis.

There were a few companies, including Instacart, Chime and Reddit, that filed for IPO in late 2021 or early 2022 that have yet to exit the private market. As many hope exit opportunities will roar back in the latter half of 2023, we’re still curious about which companies will go public first.

While not a perfect predictor by any means, the secondaries market might offer hints at how close some of these companies are to going public.