Hashdex, one of the 13 asset managers vying for spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund, expects to see the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States land by the second quarter of 2024, followed by a spot Ether (ETH) ETF.

“The exact timing of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. remains unclear, but in 2023, the narrative around this product switched from a question of ‘if’ to a matter of ‘when,’” said Hashdex’s U.S. and Europe head of product Dramane Meite in a 2024 outlook report, published on Dec. 4.

“We believe U.S. investors will have access to a spot Bitcoin ETF by the second quarter of the new year and that a spot Ether ETF is likely to follow.”

Hashdex is one of the 13 asset managers with a spot Bitcoin ETF bid before the Securities and Exchange Commission. It has also pitched a hybrid Ether ETF that holds both futures and spot contracts to the same regulator.

While Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have pinned 90% odds that spot Bitcoin ETFs will be approved in the days leading up to Jan. 10, 2024, Seyffart has previously noted that this refers only to the 19b-4 applications — and that a separate form, known as the “S-1,” must also be approved for an ETF to launch.

Seyffart noted in November that “there could be weeks or even months between approval and launch.”

Companies use the S-1 form to inform the SEC of proposed rule changes and require sign-off from the agency’s Division of Corporation Finance.

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In Hashdex’s report, Meite said spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs would see “legacy asset managers with thousands of staff and trusted brands” offer their customers a crypto product for the first time.

He believed this would unlock a $50 trillion market, larger than Europe, Canada and Brazil combined — the only three global markets with spot crypto exchange-traded products.

Meite expected most of the interest in single-asset ETFs will focus on Bitcoin and Ether, “given their name recognition and little differentiation among incumbents.”

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