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The price of Ripple’s XRP token dropped sharply on Monday in tandem with downside in broader cryptocurrency markets on risk-averse macro flows. XRP/USD was last changing hands in the $0.39 area, down around 3.4% over the last 24 hours according to CoinMarketCap. That takes the cryptocurrency’s losses since last Friday to around 7.0%, or a just shy of $1.5 billion drop in the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization.

XRP Loses Momentum After Failing to Break Key Resistance

XRP lost its upside momentum last Friday after failing to break above key resistance in the $0.41-42 area in the form of the July highs and late September/mid-October lows.

XRP/USD fades after failing to break above $0.41-42 resistance area. Source: TradingView

The cryptocurrency, alongside much of the rest of the market, continues to fight headwinds in wake of the sudden implosion of cryptocurrency exchange FTX earlier in the month. Prior to FTX’s abrupt collapse, which was triggered as rapid user withdrawals exposed the fact that the exchange had misallocated its users’ deposits, XRP had been trading in the upper $0.40s/$0.50 area.

XRP Still Up Nearly 8% Versus 7 Days Ago

Despite the above, XRP is still up close to 8% versus seven days ago. Despite being lower on Monday, it has managed to hold onto its 200 Day Moving Average (DMA) which it broke above last week.

Even more impressively, the cryptocurrency has rallied over 23% versus its earlier monthly lows in the $0.31s that were printed in the immediate aftermath of the FTX debacle. Part of that could be as a result of the broader recovery in cryptocurrency markets from their post-FTX lows, as well as some technical buying. The $0.30 is a key area of support for XRP, after all.

XRP/USD found support earlier this month in the $0.30 area. Source: TradingView

But part of the recent upside likely also has to do with a build-up in Ripple vs US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit optimism. On Wednesday, both sides in the case must file summary judgment reply briefs, and some analysts think that Ripple could use the filing the pressure the SEC into a settlement.

Back in 2020, the SEC accused Ripple of raising funds by issuing unregistered securities. If the SEC is forced into settling the lawsuit, as opposed to forcing Ripple to register its XRP token as a security, this should boost sentiment in the token and lead to substantial upside.

Traders will continue to nervously watch events in the ongoing lawsuit, which could provide fresh catalysts for XRP price action. Otherwise, traders will also be monitoring the ongoing fallout of the FTX collapse – BlockFi declared bankruptcy on Monday as a direct result of the incident.

Macro events could also offer some impetus to XRP. Optimism amid signs that US inflation has clearly peaked and that the US Federal Reserve is looking to slow its pace of rate hikes going forward has given sentiment in traditional risk assets (i.e. global equities) a boost in recent weeks.

That trend could continue should this week’s rhetoric from Fed policymakers, including an important speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, as well as a barrage of key US labor market readings, spur fresh optimism.

If XRP Breaks Above $0.41-42 Resistance, It Could Rally to Here

If the above-noted catalysts help push XRP above the $0.42 level, that could open the door to a rapid rally back to the $0.50 area, given the lack of technical resistance in the interim. If XRP could get above this area, traders would turn their attention to the September/October highs in the $0.55 area.

XRP/USD could quickly hit $0.50 if it breaks above $0.41-42 resistance. Source: TradingView

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